Daily Archives: October 31, 2008

Two Western States Looking Grim for McCain

Nate Silver has a telling post regarding the early data on Colorado and New Mexico. Remember, GW Bush won these states in 2004. If the current trends in these two states persists, McCain’s path to victory has become quite narrow.

“In the wee hours of this morning, Public Policy Polling released data from Colorado and New Mexico. The toplines are strong for Obama, giving him leads of 10 and 17 points, respectively in those states. What’s worse for McCain, however, is that PPP estimates that nearly two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their ballots, as have 55-60 percent of New Mexicans, with large majorities of those votes going to Barack Obama. This is backed up to some extent by Michael McDonald’s turnout statistics. In Colorado, the state had already processed approximately 1.3 million ballots as of Thursday, around 60 percent of the total 2004 turnout. In Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), New Mexico (statewide figures are not available), 145,000 ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, equaling 55 percent of 2004’s total.

Should New Mexico and Colorado become safe Obama states, McCain’s only realistic path to victory runs through Pennsylvania. Even if McCain were to win the Keystone, however — say that Philadelphia remains in a collective stupor from the Phillies’ win and that there is some sort of Bradley Effect in the Alleghanies — Obama has a pretty decent firewall in the form of Virginia and Nevada, which had already achieved 53 percent of its 2004 voting totals as of Wednesday, and where Democrats have a 23-point edge in ballots cast so far in Las Vegas’s Clark County (and perhaps more impressively, a 15-point advantage in Reno’s Washoe County, a traditionally Republican area). The Kerry states less Pennsylvania, but plus Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa and Virginia, total 270 electoral votes: an ugly, nail-biter of a win for Obama, but still one that would get him to 1600 Pennsylvania all the same.”



Minnesota Life: Fall at the U of M

A student relaxes on the University of Minnesota's main mall

A student relaxes on the University of Minnesota's main mall.

The Economist Endorses Barack Obama: “It’s time”

“…Meanwhile [McCain’s] temperament, always perhaps his weak spot, has been found wanting. Sometimes the seat-of-the-pants method still works: his gut reaction over Georgia—to warn Russia off immediately—was the right one. Yet on the great issue of the campaign, the financial crisis, he has seemed all at sea, emitting panic and indecision. Mr McCain has never been particularly interested in economics, but, unlike Mr Obama, he has made little effort to catch up or to bring in good advisers (Doug Holtz-Eakin being the impressive exception).

The choice of Sarah Palin epitomised the sloppiness. It is not just that she is an unconvincing stand-in, nor even that she seems to have been chosen partly for her views on divisive social issues, notably abortion. Mr McCain made his most important appointment having met her just twice…

Is Mr Obama any better? Most of the hoopla about him has been about what he is, rather than what he would do. His identity is not as irrelevant as it sounds. Merely by becoming president, he would dispel many of the myths built up about America: it would be far harder for the spreaders of hate in the Islamic world to denounce the Great Satan if it were led by a black man whose middle name is Hussein; and far harder for autocrats around the world to claim that American democracy is a sham. America’s allies would rally to him: the global electoral college on our website shows a landslide in his favour. At home he would salve, if not close, the ugly racial wound left by America’s history and lessen the tendency of American blacks to blame all their problems on racism… Continue reading

Ashwin Madia: He’s Dark!

John Croman of KARE-11 News did this piece concerning the attack ads which “darkened” images of candidate Ashwin Madia. For what purpose…, we can only guess.