What is Happening with the Minnesota Polls

As you know there have been three major polls to come out in regards to the presidential race in Minnesota:

Many are wondering about the discrepancy between the SurveyUSA poll and the Star Tribune (and CNN to boot). Nate Silver at 538 has a theory:

In Minnesota, the Star Tribune has Obama ahead by 18, quite a contrast from SurveyUSA‘s contemporaneous poll which had McCain up by 1. Yesterday, I discussed the disparities between these two polls on the senate side, and it is not surprising that the presidential numbers have followed suit. Our model projects Obama to win Minnesota by 8-9 points, roughly in between the SurveyUSA and Star Tribune estimates.”

For completist’s sake here is also the Pollster.com average of ALL the polls:

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